chuka_lis (chuka_lis) wrote,

О пользе карантинных мер

Канадцы посчитали ретроспективно,  с использованием моделей, что, если бы не противоэпидемические меры, направленные на снижение передачи инфекции, то смертей было бы минимум в 4 раза больше, да и система здравоохранения коллапсировала бы.
Тhe model predicts that school/workplace closure and individual NPI adoption together reduced the number of deaths in the best-case scenario for the case fatality rate (CFR) from 174411 [CI: 168022, 180644] to 3383 [CI: 3295, 3483] in the Spring 2020 wave. In the Fall 2020/Winter 2021 wave, the introduction of NPIs in workplaces/schools reduced the number of deaths from 17291 [CI: 16268, 18379] to 4167 [CI: 4117, 4217]. Deaths were several times higher in the worst-case scenario for the CFR. We also estimated that each additional 7-11 (resp. 285-452) individuals who choose to adhere to NPIs in the first wave prevented one additional infection (resp., death under a best-case scenario). Our results show that the adoption of NPIs prevented a public health catastrophe.

Tags: коронавирус, статьи, эпидемия
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