chuka_lis (chuka_lis) wrote,
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chuka_lis

Избыточная смертность по странам

В статье приведены данные о том, что там с изыбточной смертностью в 2020 м, который стал эпидемичным по ковиду, в сравнении с прошлыми годами.
Соглано анализу авторов статьи, с учетом избыточной смертности и особенностей "отчетности", ковид в 2020м унес жизни 3.3 млн человек в мире.

We collected the all-cause mortality data from 77 countries into the openly-available World Mortality Dataset.This includes 50 countries with weekly data, 25 countries with monthly data, and 2 countries with quarterly data.
n terms of the absolute numbers, the largest excess mortality was observed in the United States (420,000 by January 3, 2021; all reported numbers here and below have been rounded to two significant digits), in Mexico(270,000 by December 13, 2020) and in Russia (270,000 by November 30, 2020).
Some countiesshowed negative excess mortality, likely due to lockdown measures and social distancing decreasing the prevalence of influenza (Kung et al.,2020). For example, Australia had−4,700 excess deaths and New Zealand had−2,100 deaths. In both cases, the decrease in mortality happened during the southern hemisphere winter season(Figure2).As the absolute number of excess deaths can be strongly affected by the country’s population size, we normal-ized the excess mortality estimates by the population size (Table1). The highest excess mortality per 100,000inhabitants was observed in Peru (290), Bolivia (260), Bulgaria (250), Ecuador (230), Lithuania (230), and Mex-ico (210). Note that many countries with severe outbreaks that received wide international media attention, suchas Italy, Spain, and United Kingdom, had much lower values (Table1).
The infection-fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is strongly age-dependent (Levin et al.,2020). As the countriesdiffer in their age structure, the expected overall IFR differs between countries. To account for the age structure,we also normalized the excess mortality estimate by the annual baseline mortality, i.e. the expected number ofdeaths per year without a pandemic event (Table1). This relative increase (also known as ap-score) was the highest in Peru (73%), Bolivia (56%), Ecuador (52%), and Mexico (39%).
These Latin American countries were followed by Kazakhstan (22%), Kyrgyzstan (19%), and South Africa (19%).Finally, for each country we computed the ratio of the excess mortality to the officially-reported COVID-19 death count by the same date. This ratio differed very strongly between countries (Table1). Some countries hadratio below 1, e.g. 0.8 in France and 0.9 in Belgium. This is likely because these countries include suspected, and not only confirmed, COVID-19 deaths into their counts, as well as deaths from other causes in confirmed COVID-19 cases. But most countries showed ratio above 1, suggesting an undercount of COVID-19 deaths (Beaney et al.,2020). Importantly, in many different countries the correlation between weekly reported COVID-19 deaths and weekly excess deaths was very high (Figure.). This included countries with undercount ratio at 1 or below(e.g. France,r= 0.85; Belgium,r= 0.92), as well as countries with undercount above 1 (e.g. Spain, undercount1.5,r= 0.93; United States, undercount 1.2,r= 0.84). High correlations suggest that excess mortality can befully explained by COVID-19 mortality, even when it is consistently underreported in some countries.The undercount ratio typically stayed within 1–3 range (Table1), but some countries showed much larger values. We found the highest undercounts in Uzbekistan (30), Kazakhstan (12), Belarus (15), Egypt (13),and Russia (6.7). Such large undercount ratios strongly suggest purposeful misdiagnosing or underreporting ofCOVID-19 deaths
Summing up the excess mortality estimates across all countries in our dataset gives 2.1 million excess deaths.In contrast, summing up the official COVID-19 death counts gives only 1.3 million deaths, corresponding to the global undercount of 1.6 million deaths. It is likely that among the countries for which we could not obtain the data the undercount could be even higher, so we believe that 1.6 is a lower bound on the global undercount ofCOVID-19 deaths. At the time of writing, the world’s official COVID-19 death count is 2.1 million. Our results suggest that the true toll may be above 3.3 million.
Tags: коронавирус, статистика, статьи, эпидемия
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