..Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters such as the infection fatality rate,..
We estimate that, for all the countries we consider, current interventions have been sufficient to drive the reproduction number below 1 (probability < 1.0 is 99.9%) and achieve epidemic control. We estimate that, across all 11 countries, between 12 and 15 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4th May, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.