chuka_lis (chuka_lis) wrote,

вирус эбола - вероятности

на начало сентября, от лихорадки Эбола умерло примерно 1900 человек,  из 3600 больных.
по рассчетам аналитиков,  это только вопрос времени,  когда вирус доберется до остального мира- эпидемия уже вышла из под контроля. согласно рассчетным моделям, учитывающим напряженность авиаперевозок в регионе, куда уже добрался вирус (Нигерия, Сенегал)- шансы заполучить вирус на территорию сша -5% сейчас, 18% к концу сентября ( и  дальше- больше), для великобритании- до 30%, в африканском регионе- до 50%.
 снижение авиаперевозок на 80% всего  лишь задержит появление вируса в других странах на несколько недель.

It's only a matter of time, some researchers are warning, before isolated cases of Ebola start turning up in developed nations, as well as hitherto-unaffected African countries.

The probability of seeing at least one imported case of Ebola in the U.S. is as high as 18 percent by late September, researchers reported Tuesday in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. That's compared with less than 5 percent right now.

These predictions are based on the flow of airline passengers from West Africa and the difficulty of preventing an infected passenger from boarding a flight.

As with any such analysis, there's some uncertainty. The range of a probable U.S. importation of Ebola by Sept. 22 runs from 1 percent to 18 percent. But with time — and a continuing intense outbreak in West Africa — importation is almost inevitable, the researchers told NPR.

[статья на английском далее]

"What is happening in West Africa is going to get here. We can't escape that at this point," says physicist Alessandro Vespignani, the senior author on the study, who analyzes the spread of infectious diseases at Northeastern University.

"What we could expect, if there is an importation, would be very small clusters of cases, between one and three," Vespignani says.

But the probability increases as long as the West African epidemics keep growing. And that means U.S. hospitals, doctors and public health officials need to heighten their vigilance.

The same is true for a roster of 16 other nations, from the U.K. to South Africa, which are connected to West Africa through air traffic, Vespignani and his colleagues say.

There's a 25 to 28 percent chance that an Ebola case will turn up in the U.K. by late September. Belgium, France and Germany will have lower risk. "But it's not negligible," Vespignani says. "Sooner or later, they will arrive."
The probability of imported cases in Africa is higher, not surprisingly. There's more than a 50 percent probability Ebola will show up in the West African nation of Ghana by late September, according to the study. Gambia, Ivory Coast, Morocco, South Africa and Kenya are among 11 African countries where Ebola could pop up.
Biostatistician Ira Longini from the University of Florida agrees that Ebola doesn't pose a public health threat in the U.S. and other developed nations. But that doesn't mean that preparation isn't urgent.

Hundreds to several thousands travel every week from West Africa to France, Germany, Spain, Italy, South Africa, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, China and other countries.

The researchers calculated the impact of severe restrictions on flights from Ebola-affected regions. An 80 percent reduction in air travelers would do no more than delay the impact of Ebola by a few weeks. (A 100 percent choke-off of air travel is considered impossible.)

"Unless you can completely shut down the transportation systems, these kinds of efforts will, at best, buy you a little time," Longini says.
Vespignani, from Northeastern University, says screening airline passengers is not going to prevent Ebola from traveling across the globe. "I don't trust screening too much," he says. "It's difficult. Intercepting passengers that are really not sick is not easy."

Tags: вирус эбола

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